Narrow house

Will Democrats or Republics win the most seats?

With the process by which states are passing their new congressional maps these days, the outlines of next year’s House of Representatives map appear – and as a result, we can begin to determine the likelihood of some. results in 2022 House at mid-term chances.

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Control of the House of Representatives

Party November 21, 2021 Price Equivalent odds
Republicans $ 0.82 -456
Democrats $ 0.18 +456

The GOP must make five net gains to topple the House, based on the 2020 results, but the new election will play out on entirely different maps from what 2020 did, as the lines are redrawn after the decennial census.

At the start of the process, it was generally expected that the GOP would have a notional majority in the chamber just because of the map, but the GOP was less aggressive in the way it drew some state maps, and Democrats have so far been more aggressive than conventional wisdom dictates.

Given the likelihood of New York preparing to adopt an aggressive pro-Democrat gerrymander, Democrats can be functionally assured of having a majority on the new cards based on the 2020 results, which means the GOP will have to do better in 2022 than them. made in 2020 to win the House.

Now, with Joe Biden’s endorsement stuck in neutral and at a very bad level, the GOP is likely to do significantly better than it did last time around, and that should be enough to win the house. – although a price of 82 cents is a bit steep for an event that’s over 11 months away, and that’s not a lock.

To be clear, the GOP would win the House if the election takes place today, even if Democrats get their most favorable cards in every state that has yet to pass their cards. But with the uncertainties – namely the shape of the California cards and whether Biden will pull himself together enough to dramatically increase his approvals – that 82-cent price tag is a bit steep.

The reason the GOP is likely to win is simple – they are likely to win every seat they won in 2020 who voted for them and voted for Donald Trump at the top of the list, while also making gains in the domains that narrowly voted. for Biden.

The types of places that narrowly voted for Biden in Virginia and New Jersey are scattered across the country, and if Biden can’t increase his approvals, there will be enough Biden 2020-House GOP 2022 voters to become a supportive Democratic turf in the good years for them in the GOP seats.

The other thing to note is that the GOP is likely to win a majority, but it is unlikely to win overwhelmingly. This is a situation where the results band is more likely to be narrow, given that Democrats gerrymandering Illinois and New York, and the fact that early work from the California Commission suggests they will adopt a good card for the Democrats.

This is important, because the odds that Democrats can get a “good” night’s sleep – say, stay above 210 seats in the House – and the odds that they can keep the House are not very correlated. Both parties have locked down a very high floor, so it will appear the Democrats are closer to winning the House than they actually are. The GOP are very likely to win at home odds halfway through 2022, but it won’t be a landslide victory.

Balance of power

Results November 21, 2021 Price Equivalent odds
R Chamber, R Senate $ 0.68 -213
Chamber R, Senate D $ 0.22 +355
Chamber D, Senate D $ 0.13 +669
House D, Senate R $ 0.04 +2400

Combined with the Senate, there is some value in the four possible outcomes for oversight of Congress after 2022.

If you think Democrats win the House, the price of 13 cents for unified Democratic control – a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate – is far better than betting on Democrats to win the House outright, because it doesn’t. There is no way the Democrats will win the House and lose the Senate.

If Democrats recoup their position enough to win the House, they will not only win the Senate, but do so with more seats than last time – easily winning Pennsylvania and potentially Wisconsin and North Carolina.

The other option that has value is the Republican House and Democratic Senate scenario, which is currently my take on what’s to come.

The GOP is in a weak position when it comes to Senate recruiting these days, making this market undervalued for what is probably the most likely outcome. If Democrats lose 10 to 15 House seats, they will likely be able to keep their four competitive Senate seats, and that’s the most likely range of House losses, from now on.

Next speaker in the house

Representing November 21, 2021 Price Equivalent odds
Kevin mccarthy $ 0.71 -245
Hakeem Jeffries $ 0.10 +900
Donald trump $ 0.04 +2400
Steve scalise $ 0.04 +2400
Nancy Pelosi $ 0.04 +2400
Jim jordan $ 0.04 +2400

All other applicants priced at $ 0.01 or $ 0.02

This one seems to be pretty straightforward, but it’s not. Kevin McCarthy is the House leader of the GOP, and if the GOP wins the House, he would become president, right? Not so fast.

McCarthy is an unpopular leader, unable to speak in public consistently, and has long been viewed with skepticism by those on the right. There’s a reason he wasn’t named president in 2015, and Paul Ryan had to be convinced to run outside of management.

Steve Scalise wants the job, and as House No. 2 Republican, he’s likely to fight for it if the GOP returns to majority vote next year. Scalise did not contest the post after the 2018 losses as being minority leader is a thankless job, then after 2020 the GOP went much better than expected, a challenge was not on the table.

Scalise is not the favorite to win the presidency next time around, but McCarthy has a lot of vulnerabilities and Scalise has handled his GOP relationship well. Whether he officially challenges or not, he will count his votes, and if McCarthy is seen as not having won enough, he will be very vulnerable.

Given the general expectation that the GOP will win the House next year, a narrow House turnaround will not be seen as a success for McCarthy, but a failure it was not a bigger one. 2010 style landslide. Add in the doubts that McCarthy would actually be able to handle the Presidency, and Scalise has a very clear path, and at a very attractive price for Speaker in the House ratings midway through 2022.