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Rare good news 2022 for House Democrats

The retirements from your ranks are expected to be intense – Michigan Representative Brenda Lawrence this week became the 25th Democrat to announce her retirement – and your president is mired in the 40s stockings in terms of job approval.

In fact, the apocalyptic predictions of some Democratic circles that the 10-year redistribution process would be a bloodbath for their camp have in fact not been confirmed.

“The surprising good news for Democrats: on the current trajectory, there will be a few Following The districts Biden won after redistribution than there is now – producing a congressional map that is slightly less biased in favor of the GOP than that of the past decade, ” wrote David Wasserman, the editor-in-chief of the Maison at Cook political report with Amy Walter, this week.

With 34 states completed in redistribution or in the endgame, Wasserman calculates that President Joe Biden would have won 161 of the 293 new districts created for the next decade in the 2020 election. This compares favorably to 157 of the 292 districts under the old maps. that Biden was wearing.

Which is at least slightly surprising, given that Republicans had complete control over the line-drawing process in 187 seats compared to only 75 for Democrats.

Before Democrats got too excited, however, Wasserman rightly notes that many of the new districts Biden wore he had won very closely – and the lion’s share of them are targeted by Republicans in November.

Wasserman rates 35 Democratic seats as potentially competitive this fall compared to just 18 for Republicans – a signal that Democrats have much more vulnerability among districts completed so far.

Again, Wasserman:

“The math problem for House Democrats comes down to this: Even though there will be more seats won by Biden than there are now, dozens will have voted for him only by narrow margins and will be very tenuous for Democrats if Biden’s approval rating still languishes below 45 percent.

So this good news is far from a clear victory for Democrats. Especially considering that they currently only hold a 221-213 seat advantage (with one vacant in a strongly Democratic district in Florida) in the House at the moment and history suggests that the first election term for a presidential party is generally defined by large losses in the lower chamber.

Point: Democrats are awaiting positive news before the mid-term of 2022. At least right now, the redistribution is one of the few good stories for them.